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    February 27, 2011


    In Green Tea Movie, we crunch the numbers and make some computation over the past few days in order to gain some self-prediction working out before tonight's Oscar awarding ceremony. It is now just less than 24 hours before the Hollywood start giving and awarding the top winners in the film industry throughout the year. Here's the maths and  possibility. You can argue the numbers or you can even argue the decisions but the race to Oscar is always a tricky one although some awards are basically down to one particular nominees already. Can I say categories like Best Actress in a Leading Role should already cemented by yours truly. Well, let's ignore my assumption and head down to the numbers?

    Note: Please be reminded that this numbers are based solely on Green Tea Movie's prediction and opinion. Also we did this for some top awards only. Kudos and good luck to all the nominees.

    John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon (11%)
    Hans Zimmer, Inception (24%)
    Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech (25%)
    A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours (7%)
    Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network (33%)

    Although I would like to see Inception, or in particular Mr Hans Zimmer to walk away with the awards because of its orthodox and how the score works so well throughout the film, he is not the top contender. The awards could and most likely belongs to The Social Network. Now, that is unorthodox enough and pretty engaging too. A R Rahman has won in the last two years and Academy might probably not awarding him again that soon. If Golden Globe and BAFTA award is the gauge-meter, it should be the pair that makes The Social Network so melodically outstanding.
    Exit Through The Gift Shop (28%)
    Gasland (11%)
    Inside Job (27%)
    Restrepo (24%)
    Wate land Lucy Walker (10%)

    Waiting For Superman is the notable absentee in this category but we will prefer not to say anything about it. Exit Through The Gift Shop is pretty mysterious while Sundance's Inside Job is also pretty much doing well as well. The truth is Green Tea Movie isn't that familiar with these nominees but based on the hypes on the net, it is a tight race till the end after all. I don't know, maybe I am wrong. Besides you may also have this war-themed documentary Restrepo as the runaway hit. The rest are pretty much the underdog.

    Biutiful (Mexico) (27%)
    Dogtooth (Greece) (14%)
    In A Better World (Denmark) (16%)
    Incendies (Canada) (14%)
    Outside the Law (Algeria) (29%)

    Biutiful is an amazing outfit which should be fortunate to have Javier Bardem in a story about a falling man, a crisis-ridden story that ends up in a redemption versus Algeria's Outside the Law which has made some names during 2010's Cannes Festival about the struggle during the World War II and during the French occupation. It is pretty much between these two judging by the animosity and intensity of internet hypes. I want Biutiful to win but I feel that Outside The Law should deserved the award too. It's a tough call but the slight advantage for the Algerian movie.

    How To Train Your Dragon (22%)
    The Illusionist (26%)
    Toy Story 3 (52%)

    Interesting. Will Oscar continues to honor the traditional Pixar for this award or go for something unconventional by awarding this to The Illusionist or the ever beloved How To Train Your Dragon. It seems more senseful to award this to Toy Story 3, with the same formulaic standard that makes you laugh, cry and move. Besides, Toy Story is the top ten Best Picture so it seems more appropriate that the awards will safely return to the norm. However, it is still been a glorious year for animations.
    Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufroy, 127 Hours (16%)
    Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network (33%)
    Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich, Toy story3 (18%)
    Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit (17%)
    Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone (16%)

    It's hard to see why Aaron Sorkin's hand-down on the story of the successful Facebook formation should not win this. The tackling is handy and timely accurate, bringing the inner sense outward and finishing it with a bang of surprise. From the earlier of the race, Aaron Sorkin's work has been leading the pack and the only true competitor that I thought worthy to challenge him is the people behind Toy Story 3. The animation made some of the toughest souls to cry at its ending and the toys of Andy will forever be missed. Nevertheless, another win for Facebook!!

    Mike Leigh, Another Year (7%)
    scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson and Keith Dorrington, The Fighter (18%)
    Christopher Nolan, Inception (33%)
    Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right (7%)
    David Seidler, The King's Speech (35%)

    Inception is a smart and brilliant movie by Christopher Nolan and plenty would love him to win again after his miraculous job handling Memento a decade ago. However, it is too cerebral and probably too cold to win this. Face it, I want him to walk away high but the fact that David Seidler's tackle on the stammer king is pretty amazing and powerful. It is well-mannered, well-coordinated and well-handled to reflect the seriousness and the strength in highlighting the issues. The King's Speech is a hand down on the award. Some may give The Kids Are All Right for something here but I do not really appreciate that movie. So, it ends with a two-horse racing till the finishing line.

    End of Part 1....we have more on Part 2. So stay tune!

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