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    February 27, 2011


    Yea let's continue the prediction. I just wiped my crystal ball just to ensure these top awards go as accurate as possible. Green Tea Movie did some crunching a while ago and in case you missed our first part, here's something for you to look again. Now, part 2 is the more exciting part where we look at the top awards in acting, directing and movie in a whole. Place your bet yet?

    Amy Adams, The Fighter (12%)
    Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech (18%)
    Melissa Leo, The Fighter (30%)
    Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (13%)
    Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (27%)

    Remarkable. The young Hailee Steinfeld stole some limelight out of her performance in True Grit. Helena Bonham Carter's win on BAFTA recently suddenly made her one of the front-runners as well. However, the true winner should be decided between Jacki Weaver's role as a mom and the criminal-bridge with her son in Animal Kingdom, and Melissa Leo in The Fighter which gave an equally role and very enigmatic. I may say that some slight advantage on Leo because of the widely received performance while Animal Kingdom has a limited coverage, running more like an Indie hit from Down Under. After all, this year's Supporting Actress could go only to both of them, cemented!
    Christian Bale, The Fighter (38%)
    John Hawkes, Winter's Bone (15%)
    Jeremy Renner, The Town (11%)
    Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech (26%)
    Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (10%)

    Mark Ruffalo is excellent in the movie despite how much I did not enjoy The Kids Are All Right. Geoffrey Rush is amazing but yet again, Academy might shunned him. Jeremy Renner's villain and hot-tempered guy is engaging but also not on the possible winner. John Hawkes' performance is equally challenging but not gaining a lot of attention or momentum. That leaves us to Christian Bale. He is no longer woody stick, he is psychologically mesmerizing in The Fighter and it should be pretty easy for him ever since he has been leading the race from Day One. Bale for a win!! This could be a double Supporting win for The Fighter too!!
    Annette Benning, The Kids Are All Right (14%)
    Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (30%)
    Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (4%)
    Natalie Portman, Black Swan (40%)
    Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (12%)

    This year's Best Actress lead is pretty tough and strong on their own. Wild guesses could be anyone. It could have been Blue Valentine's Michelle Williams but the controversial movie was pretty much snubbed off its pace but failing to secure a proper noms in other bigger categories. The same goes to Nicole Kidman and her outstanding role in Rabbit Hole. In general, the darker the role, the better the chance to score this award. Another guess and probably the most accurate one should be Natalie Portman. While it is not so convincing and lack of something (at least for me), the award still landed on Portman for her psycho-duo role about Black Swan and White Swan.
    Javier Bardem, Biutiful (24%)
    Jeff Bridges, True Grit (15%)
    Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (20%)
    Colin Firth, The King's Speech (27%)
    James Franco, 127 Hours (14%)

    It looks like host James Franco will not win it despite been nominated. The reason is obvious; nice performance but 127 Hours is pretty lacking in general aura. Jeff Bridges' character in True Grit is more like a caricature rather than the character, so said someone on the net. Jesse Eisenberg nails down Mark Zuckerberg perfectly but it is going to win the Academy bench. Javier Bardem is a perfect but so does Colin Firth. My odds lean to the duo but it could come to no surprise if Colin Firth not winning it. He is an amazing British actor over the year, constantly giving out plenty of great acting. It's Firth time this year, no doubt.
    Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (29%)
    David O Russell, The Fighter (11%)
    Tom Hooper, The King's Speech (6%)
    David Fincher, The Social Network (31%)
    Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit (23%)

    This year's Oscar could see something different. Traditionally, Best Director and Best Picture goes hand-in-hand but this year might not see the same. It could be happening that David Fincher winning this while losing out the Best Picture - as far as I can see, only he has the realistic chance of winning both. The Social Network is at uppermost well-directed and well-handled. Black Swan's Darren Aronofsky is doing his job pretty brilliant too. So I am considering only them as having the most probably a neck-to-neck run till the end. The Coen Brothers could be running some surprises too, but they just won few years back don't they? Alas, where is Christopher Nolan now?
    127 Hours
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    The Kids Are All Right
    The King's Speech
    The Social Network
    Toy Story 3
    True Grit

    Okay, this is tough but it should be breathing down on two movies only. Inception, though is my favourite movie of the year, hoping that finally Nolan would be honored and yet realistically, that won't be happening. Out of the ten, the weight has always been on either The King's Speech or The Social Network. Both are brilliant. Back in the early days of the race, it seems that The Social Network has been dominating. Lately, the weigh has shifted to another side across the Atlantic, with The King's Speech has been kicking and running like a champion. This is a tough call but if there is a slight chance I flip this coin, it could land on The Social Network. Otherwise, the story about the Facebook invention has won more top honors than The King's Speech after all. No percentage of assurance I can give but let's say, it should be The Social Network. Too close to call at the top two.
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